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The Associated Press reports that "Economic experts at
the Health and Human Services Department concluded in a
report issued Thursday that the health care remake will
achieve Obama's aim of expanding health insurance -
adding 34 million to the coverage rolls. But the
analysis also found that the law falls short of the
president's twin goal of controlling runaway costs,
raising projected spending by about 1 percent over 10
years."
The report also warns that Medicare cuts could drive 15
percent of hospitals into debt and as many as 50 percent
of Medicare Advantage enrollees out of the the plans.
"... some of the cost-control measures in the bill -
Medicare cuts, a tax on high-cost insurance and a
commission to seek ongoing Medicare savings - could help
reduce the rate of cost increases beyond 2020. But it
held out little hope for progress in the first decade"
(Alonso-Zaldivar, 4/23).
The Hill: The report - from CMS actuary Richard Foster
- says the "new healthcare reform law would cost $828
billion over the next decade while saving $577 billion."
Foster said, however, that the projections don't take
into account changes to the tax code that were enacted
including a tax on high-cost - so-called "Cadillac" -
insurance plans. "Foster informed lawmakers that his
office needed time to assess the law, and was unable to
complete its analysis by the time Congress voted on the
bill. Congress is bound by numbers released by CBO,
which released its cost estimates before the final House
and Senate votes" (Cusack, 4/22).
Los Angeles Times: The health overhaul could result in
lower Medicare premiums for seniors and a more
sustainable Medicare program. "The analysis, the first
since Obama signed the law last month, suggests that the
Medicare program will remain viable until 2029 - longer
than some earlier projections. Before passage of the
healthcare overhaul, Medicare had been projected to slip
into the red in 2017" (Levey, 4/22).
The New York Times: "Mr. Foster said these savings
assume that the law will be carried out as written, and
that may be an unrealistic assumption. The cuts, he
said, 'could become unsustainable' because they may
drive some hospitals and nursing homes into the red,
'possibly jeopardizing access to care for
beneficiaries.' Nancy-Ann DeParle, director of the White
House Office of Health Reform, said that fear was
unfounded."
"Mr. Foster's report, which analyzes the effect of the
law on national health spending of all types, has a
different focus from studies by the Congressional Budget
Office, which concentrated on federal spending and
revenues and concluded that the law would reduce budget
deficits by a total of $143 billion over 10 years"
(Pear, 4/23).
CBS News: Republicans said "the findings validate their
concerns about Obama's 10-year, nearly $1 trillion plan
to remake the nation's health care system." Health and
Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said in a
statement, however, that "'[t]he analysis by the
independent Office of the Actuary reaffirms what the
Congressional Budget Office has already said: the
Affordable Care Act will cover more Americans and
strengthen Medicare by cracking down on waste fraud and
abuse, modernizing payment systems and improving
benefits by providing free preventive services,
supporting innovations that help control chronic disease
and closing the prescription drug donut hole'" (Maer,
4/23). |