WASHINGTON- The
costs of health care
reform being pushed
through Congress by
Democrats will be
felt long before the
benefits.
Proposed taxes and
fees on upper-income
earners, insurers,
even tanning
parlors, take effect
quickly. So would
Medicare cuts.
Benefits, such as
subsidies for lower
middle-income
households, consumer
protections for all,
and eliminating the
prescription
coverage gap for
seniors, come
gradually.
"There's going to be
an expectations gap,
no question about
that," said Drew
Altman, president of
the nonpartisan
Kaiser Family
Foundation. "People
are going to see
their premiums and
out-of-pocket costs
go up before the
tangible benefits
kick in."
Most of the 30
million uninsured
helped by the bill
won't get coverage
until 2013 at the
earliest, well after
the next
presidential
election.
More than two-thirds
of Americans get
their coverage
through large
employer plans and
their premiums won't
go up because of the
legislation,
according to number
crunchers at the
nonpartisan
Congressional Budget
Office.
But Congress can't
abolish medical
inflation, so don't
hold your breath
waiting for premiums
to drop.
For people who buy
their own insurance
policies _ about one
of every six
Americans _ premiums
will go up. But
that's for better
benefits prescribed
under the
legislation. And
about half of them
would get tax
credits to
substantially lower
their costs.
As Senate Democrats
cleared the second
of three 60-vote
procedural hurdles,
over unanimous GOP
opposition Tuesday,
it looked like the
White House was
already celebrating.
"Health care reform
is not a matter of
if, health care
reform now is a
matter of when, and
I think the
president is
enormously
encouraged by that,"
declared spokesman
Robert Gibbs.
Republicans,
bolstered by opinion
polls that show a
majority of
Americans opposed to
the legislation,
aimed their fire at
dozens of deals
Democratic leaders
cut to line up the
60 votes needed in
the Senate. "Senator
so-and-so may have
gotten his deal,"
said GOP Leader
Mitch McConnell of
Kentucky. "But the
American people
haven't signed off."
If the Senate passes
the bill Thursday,
as now seems likely,
the pressure will be
on Democrats to
quickly sort out
House and Senate
differences and get
final legislation to
Obama's desk. That
would end a divisive
debate that has
soured the public
mood.
But there are
significant
differences between
the bills, including
stricter abortion
language in the
House version as
well as a
government-run
insurance plan that
is missing from the
Senate package. The
Senate plan also
embraces a tax on
high-value insurance
plans, something
strongly opposed by
unions and many
House Democrats.
One thing that won't
emerge in the end is
a government
takeover of health
care. The
government-run
insurance plan some
liberals were hoping
would be a step to
Medicare-for-all
lacks support in the
Senate. If
negotiators put it
back, moderate
Democrats in the
Senate say they'll
oppose the final
bill. And Majority
Leader Harry Reid,
D-Nev., needs every
one of his party's
60 votes.
Instead, the final
package could end up
looking like the
Medicare
prescription drug
benefit, delivered
through private
insurance companies
but subsidized and
regulated by the
government.
Just as seniors now
pick their drug
coverage from a
range of private
plans, Americans who
were previously
uninsured would
select brand-name
coverage through a
new kind of
insurance
supermarket called
an exchange. As
seniors do today,
they would have to
pay part of the cost
themselves. Most
people with employer
coverage wouldn't
need to go to the
exchange.
The exchanges could
be national,
regional or
state-based. They'd
be up and running in
2013 under the House
bill, a year later
in the Senate
version. Around that
same time, other
major changes would
snap into place:
_Health insurance
companies would be
prohibited from
denying coverage to
people with health
problems, or
charging them more.
_For the first time,
Americans would be
required to carry
health insurance,
either through an
employer, Medicare
or Medicaid, or by
buying it
themselves. Refusal
would bring fines,
except in cases of
financial hardship.
_Federal subsidies
would start flowing
to individuals and
small businesses
buying coverage in
the exchange,
helping them afford
the premiums.
_Most employers
would be required to
offer coverage or
pay a tax, under the
House bill. In the
Senate version,
employers would get
a bill if any of
their workers got
subsidized coverage
in the exchange.
_Medicaid coverage
would be expanded to
pick up millions
more living near the
poverty line.
Debated since
President Harry
Truman's
administration,
health care overhaul
would finally be in
place. An estimated
94 percent to 96
percent of
Americans, not
counting illegal
immigrants, would
have coverage.
But there's a catch.
Cost is the
Achilles' heel of
the whole
complicated
undertaking. To keep
the cost of the bill
at around $1
trillion over 10
years, lawmakers had
to limit subsidies
for people seeking
coverage through the
exchange.
The aid tapers off
dramatically for
households with
solid middle-class
incomes. A family of
four making $66,000
a year would still
have to spend about
10 percent of its
income on premiums _
less than a mortgage
but more than a car
payment. And that's
without counting
copayments and
deductibles. Several
million otherwise
eligible Americans
could still be
priced out.
Altman, the Kaiser
Foundation expert,
thinks Democrats
won't be able to
resist the
temptation to keep
tinkering with the
legislation to
improve or speed up
coverage. "The
legislation is going
to be out there, and
politics can
change," he said.
"There's a potential
for modification and
amendment."